Ness Notes (May 23)
The defending champions rallied from a 20-point deficit last night to take a three-point lead with 32 seconds left in the game, but like USC vs. Texas in the Rose Bowl, the Spurs couldn’t get that last ‘first down’ . San Antonio, which set a franchise record this year with 63 regular season wins, heads home while Dallas advances to the Western Conference Finals after last night’s 119-111 victory.
My bye game for Tuesday is the Bos Red Sox over the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. After a 3-0 sweep on Monday, I’m going for my fifth consecutive Las Vegas Insider winner (in all sports!) tonight. It’s in MLB, where my Las Vegas Insiders have gone 6-1 85% in May! Also in MLB, I’m featuring a 15* line value play (the line is 30 cents off!). In the NBA, I’m following up my LEGEND win last night over the Suns (127-107) with a 15* Showdown Play in Game 1 of the Mia/Det series (current 3-0 postseason streak since Friday!) .
The Mavs opened the game 15-of-18 shooting in the first quarter and opened up a 20-point lead in the second quarter, but still needed a “traditional” three-point play from Nowitzki in the final seconds of the game to tie it, before surviving. to a missed shot by Ginobili and a reverse attempt blocked by Duncan to go into overtime. In the Old Testament, it was all Dallas. Nowitzki was great again at 37-15 and Terry recovered from his suspension to score 27.
Dallas’ victory marks the first time the Mavericks have beaten a No. 1 seed (it had been 0-for-7) and prevents the Spurs from becoming the ninth team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 deficit. and win a seven. series of games (165 have tried it). Duncan scored a playoff career-high 41 points (plus 15 rebounds), and while Parker and Ginobili combined for 47, San Antonio’s bench accounted for just two points!
Nowitzki had led Dallas to a perfect 3-0 record in three previous Game 7s, but those three games had been played in Dallas. Last night’s victory in San Antonio stands as the franchise’s biggest victory to date. However, Nowitzki and Dallas have yet to reach an NBA Finals and not win one, so let’s keep those comparisons to Bill Russell, who won 11 titles in 13 years with a perfect 10-0 in Game 7, just for a while. to enlarge.
Dallas’ rival in the Western Conference Finals will be the Phoenix Suns. The Suns won their second straight Game 7 this postseason last night, beating the Clippers 127-107. Nash snapped his 3-point shooting slump (he had shot just 21.7 percent in the series) by going 4-for-5 last night. He scored 29 points and added 11 assists while Shawn Marion added 30 points and nine rounds.
Marion, outplayed for most of the Lakers’ series by Lamar Odom, topped the 30-point mark in four of the last five games in this series. Only seven Suns played last night, but all scored in double figures. The Clippers played well offensively (Brand was excellent again at 36-9), shooting 52.6 percent plus 25-of-26 free throws, but the Suns shot 60 percent of the game, including 15-of-27 on triples. The Suns are now 4-0 this postseason when facing elimination.
Closing the book on the first two NBA rounds shows that of the first 12 series, the Mavericks were the only underdogs to win (San Antonio was a 2-1 favorite). The Clippers (the No. 6 seed) beat the Nuggets (the No. 3 seed) in the first round, but the Clippers had home-court advantage and were the favorites to win that series for under $1.65.
Home teams went 1-1 last night in the two Game 7s, giving them a 78-18 mark in 96 all-time postseason Game 7s. The local teams finished the second round with 16-10 SU and 12-14 ATS. ‘Over’ bettors went 17-9 in the second round as last night’s two games ‘overflew’ the total. Followers of the “Zig-Zag” theory went 2-0 last night and finished the round 13-9 ATS. The Clippers/Suns series ended a perfect 6-0 for zig-zaggers.
After 12 series, the home teams are now 47-24 SU and 34-35-2 ATS. There have been 39 overs and 32 unders with a big tilt recently, as 26 of the last 36 playoff games have gone over the total. Followers of the “Zig-Zag” theory are barely making profits, going 32-25-2 ATS or more-4.5 units.
By comparison, last year’s home postseason teams went just 36-29 SUs through the first two rounds. That’s a winning percentage of just .544, much lower than this year’s .662. However, ATS records are similar, with home teams going 32-31-2, slightly better than this year’s mark of 34-35-2.
The conference finals open tonight with Miami visiting Detroit in the East (8:00 ET) on ESPN and then Phoenix going to Dallas tomorrow in the West (8:30 ET) on TNT. The Pistons are favored by 5 1/2 points tonight with a total of 188. Detroit is also a sub-$2.60 favorite to win the series. Number one in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is Dallas favored by six points with a total of 221. The Mavs are favored by minus $3.50 to win the series.
It should be noted that in these two Games 1 there are a number of things. Home teams have gone 10-2 SU in Game 1 of a series in these past two postseasons (first two rounds), but unlike last year, when home teams also went 10-2 ATS in those games, teams hosts have only 6-6 ATS in the game. 1 of a series this year. Last year, both visiting teams won the conference final opener (Detroit 90-81 over Miami and San Antonio 121-114 over Phoenix), and each also won the series.