NASCAR 2005: the season that was
Let’s start our NASCAR season roundup with a look back at the betting year. If you bet alongside me in 2005, I’m presumably some kind of folk hero to you, roaming the countryside with axle oil and grease under my fingernails, spreading auto racing lore in a sort of Johnny Appleseed style.
For the year, giving him three outright picks (meaning three drivers I thought could win that week’s race), I picked 17 outright winners in 37 events, a percentage of 46%. Each week, I also gave them a single head-to-head matchup that I thought would make them money (ie one driver finishing ahead of another driver in that week’s event); on those bets, I got a ridiculous 28 out of 36, a 78% payout percentage. In total, that meant that if you bet a penny a unit with me each week, you’d get 54.6 units, or $54,606.30, for the 2005 Nextel Cup season. Pretty fancy, huh? Even more remarkable, when you consider that I changed my betting format this season.
Under the previous two years’ systems, this year you would have earned a whopping $86,145.60; however, I changed my betting pattern in 2005 to ensure you more weekly wins and fewer dry spells between positive net weeks. That worked like a charm: During the year, I made you money in 30 out of 37 events in total – an 81% clip. That tradeoff made the change in betting format worthwhile. Also, none of these calculations include my pre-season bets, in which I encouraged you to bet one unit on three drivers to win the Nextel Cup championship. One of those picks, Tony Stewart, came home with his second career championship last week at Homestead; their 10-1 preseason odds mean you can add +8 units to my season total.
(It’s worth noting, for the sake of thoroughness, that I was a double winner in the final event of the season last week at Homestead: Greg Biffle won the race at odds 6-1 and also beat Tony Stewart in his hand to hand). -main confrontation For the week, that meant I ended up with $2,871.80 if you bet a penny along with me per unit).
My odds-on winner from 2005 was Matt Kenseth, who paid 20-1 in the fall race at Bristol. My lowest odds winner of the year was Stewart, who paid off a 4-1 mother by winning the road course race at Watkins Glen. Who would have believed that a previously little-known driver named Greg Biffle would be my most frequently picked driver in 2005: I picked him for 18 outright wins (and hit four times: at Texas, Dover, Michigan and Homestead), and I picked him 23 times in total. My favorite heads-up bet was with Stewart; I faced him in seven different H2H matchups and won six of them. My best value picks in direct picks were Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards; if I picked them to win a race, I was right 1/3 of the time. And considering all bets (both straight and heads up), Edwards gave me my best winning percentage: 60% of the time I listed him as a pick, he helped me out and won that race, or at least that battle. face to face. (and sometimes both).
But enough of me.
In the eyes of Las Vegas, the biggest unlikely winner of 2005 was Dale Jarrett winning the fall race at Talladega 40-1 (it was a pretty fluke win, and it was one of the few races in 2005 to end under caution). . Speaking of flukes, Dale Earnhardt Jr. won Chicago with probably the 25th-best car of the day, but lucky caution and fuel strategy helped Junior to a 35-1 win (which pissed me off considering had chosen its closest competitors). Edwards’ win at Pocono and Kyle Busch’s late-season conquest of Phoenix came 25-1 apiece, and Jeremy Mayfield’s win in fuel strategy at Michigan came 22-1. That was it for big long shots over 20-1. During the year, half (18 of 36) of the Nextel Cup points races were won by drivers listed 10-1 or less, showing that only a handful of drivers are likely to win a race in a race. given week, and chasing the big underdogs usually leaves the punter breathing in exhaust fumes.
From the manufacturer’s perspective, it was a split boat for Chevy and Ford. Each manufacturer won 17 races, while Dodge had only three wins (one of which was Mayfield’s polluted Michigan excursion). If ever there was a reason for Dodge to ditch the new Charger and go back to the more competitive Intrepid, this is it. Guys like Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Rusty Wallace, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears have been hurt by Dodge’s struggles, and with Wallace leaving the sport and McMurray going to Roush (Fords), Dodge needs help staying relevant. , but quickly. . Then again, the Ford side of things isn’t all harmony, either. Of Ford’s 17 wins, an amazing 16 were by Roush cars (only Jarrett’s win in the super drag kept Roush from sweeping). That means a team like Robert Yates racing (which actually co-designed the engines featured in the Roush and Yates cars) really needs to step things up, or risk being left behind. With the Chevys, Gibbs cars win four events (all Stewarts), while Hendrick cars won 11, Richard Childress Racing won one (Kevin Harvick), and DEI won just one as well. Therefore, the teams of all manufacturers must step forward.
All of which brings us to next year. NASCAR’s landscape will be dramatically different in 2006; No fewer than 23 cars will see major changes (most of them driver changes) next year, with some of the biggest names in the sport changing vehicles or leaving the stage altogether. Yeah, the goofy 2005 season has been incredibly goofy. Here are the changes:
#OldNewNotes0Mike BlissJeff Green 1N/AMartin Truex Jr.(rookie)2Rusty WallaceKurt Busch 07Dave BlaneyClint Bowyer 10N/AScott Riggs(keeps same number, but changes teams)11Jason LefflerDenny Hamlin(rookie)14Scott RiggsSterling Marlin(replaces #10; #14 in honor of Marlin’s father)15Michael WaltripPaul Menard(running 7 races in 2006, full time in 2007)18Bobby LabonteJ.J. Yeley(rookie)21Ricky RuddKen Schrader 22Scott Wimmer?????(no announcement yet) 32Bobby Hamilton Jr.?????(no announcement yet)40Sterling MarlinDavid Stremme(rookie)41Casey MearsReed Sorenson (rookie)42Jamie McMurrayCasey Mears 43Jeff GreenBobby Labonte 49Ken SchraderBrent Sherman 50Jimmy Spencer?????(can’t run; may be Yates’ third team)51N/AStuart Kirby 55N/AMichael Waltrip 94Mike Wallace?????(can’t run)96N/ATony Raines(Terry Labonte will run the first seven races) 97Kurt BuschJamie McMurray(will change from 97 to 26)
Highlights include the departures of Rusty Wallace and Ricky Rudd, the major team trades of Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray, Bobby Labonte and Michael Waltrip, and the influx of young talent to such top teams as Gibbs Racing (JJ Yeley and Denny Hamlin) and Chip Ganassi (David Stremme and Reed Sorenson). Unlike 2005, when Kyle Busch basically had the rookie of the year field to himself, there will be no fewer than six rookies with impeccable records and multimillion-dollar resources behind them.
So what should we look for in 2006? Well, it’s unlikely we’ll ever see the kind of betting edge we saw in 2005 again. I mean, the Dodges will have to get their act together. It was all too easy to ignore them completely at any of the unrestricted intermediate tracks (which make up a large part of the NASCAR schedule) and at superspeedways. It is that factor, more than any other, to which I attribute my handicap success this year. Hopefully, we’ll be able to spot some new trends early next season and take them all the way to the bank. Toyota, long rumored to be ready for Nextel Cup action, won’t play in 2006, but rumors continue to circulate that 2007 could be the year, and that would also make things jittery. We should see some big changes at Charlotte (where the track just got too fast), which could also throw off some of the predictability of the season. And yet, in the end, I expect all the Roush cars to be strong, the Hendrick cars will continue to dominate, Tony Stewart will always be a handful, and every other team will be hot on their heels.
Christopher Harris covers Nascar for Brian Gabrielle Sports